Two of our favorite decision making models start with essentially the same action, observations and assessment. John Boyd’s OODA (observe, orient, decide, act) Loop and Von Clausewitz’ (as per William Pietersen from Columbia because I cannot read German) strategy framework both begin by assessing conditions on the ground. Some may ask why the focus on two models that were originally developed to handle warfare settings. Very simply because geopolitics, economics, finance and commercial pursuits all have competition as a basic feature. The idea of nation-states, individual cities and businesses large and small all circling the campfire, holding hands and subverting their own self-interest for some communal ideal is so unlike anything in human history as to be black swan-like in its probability. Given this, what activity exists where the downside of a bad decision exacts more of the ultimate price, human life, than most others? War. That’s why models for decision making and action that come from that world and are deemed successful by results, not only have applicability across other spheres of human action but demand our attention. They have literally been battle tested.
One of the main goals of this writing is for VIEW to offer our perspective on the changes, transitions and inflection points that investors are faced with and how to process them and ultimately position accordingly. We are more about providing readers with the tools to make their decisions than offering the “five stocks you need to consider right now”. There is quite enough of that out there, the vast majority of it mediocre in value and the few who add value charging for it, as well they should. We are more about writing as an unconstrained global strategist, pointing to risks and opportunities.
So we will be putting together a series looking at the current conditions on the investment and geopolitical (they have always been intertwined) ground. Because we are fortunate enough to set our own agenda, we will also be true to our definition of capital as including financial, human and intellectual property and try to present thoughts with some nod to these, not just investments that stand to lose or gain from current conditions.
Our first installment will be a look at how the execution of the energy transition unwittingly helped create the conditions in Europe whereby Russia may have calculated they could weather the economic costs of aggression. We look to follow that up with installments on inflation, currency implications, economic growth and several others.
Lastly, we would emphasize that there is no more clarity regarding conditions on the ground in this war than others, maybe less. The degree of digital manipulation possible in video feeds, photographs, commentary, etc. should not surprise us nor should it that all sides are involved in active positioning of their respective books. Given the resulting amount of noise versus signal that we consume, trading assets on a daily basis is literally an exercise in randomness. Consider the levels of equity, oil and bond volatility as features of a current assessment of markets, VIEW would not ignore them.
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